Mr. President… You Can’t Have Your Cake and Eat It Too

Recently, the President has expressed frustration that the press has failed to fully appreciate—or even acknowledge—his transformation of the U.S. economy into what he repeatedly describes as the “best ever.” This rhetorical flourish will sound familiar to anyone who has listened for more than five minutes. Everything, apparently, is the best. The biggest. The greatest. Entirely unprecedented. History itself is exhausted just trying to keep up.

And while I don’t doubt that the President believes this—and genuinely wants the best for the country—the gap between the economic narrative being sold and the economic reality being lived has grown uncomfortably wide.

Let’s start with Macro Economics 101, the course many of us slept through but apparently remains undefeated. A growing economy and falling interest rates are not natural companions. When economic activity accelerates, consumers earn and spend more money. Increased demand pushes prices higher. That, in plain English, is inflation. And inflation and interest rates tend to move together. Higher inflation pressures rates higher, not lower.

So, the President’s simultaneous insistence that the economy is booming and that rates—especially mortgage rates—should be sharply lower is not bold thinking. It’s internally inconsistent. Could we have lower inflation and lower rates at the same time? In theory, yes. In practice, that would be something closer to a macroeconomic unicorn—majestic, mythical, and not currently roaming the countryside.

This contradiction explains why the press has been slow to declare victory.

If the economy were truly firing on all cylinders, we would expect to see strength at the consumer level. Instead, we are watching well-established national retailers reduce footprints and shutter locations. Companies such as Saks Off 5th, Yankee Candle, REI, GameStop, Macy’s, Kroger, Wendy’s, and even Starbucks have announced store closures or operational pullbacks nationwide. These are not fringe businesses. These are bellwethers of discretionary and middle-income consumer behavior.

Add to that a surplus of unsold 2025 model-year vehicles lingering on dealer lots and the weakest housing market we’ve seen in more than two decades. Housing, of course, is one of the largest multipliers in the U.S. economy—touching construction, manufacturing, employment, consumer spending, and local tax bases. When housing slows, it rarely does so quietly.

I would genuinely like the President to be right. A strong economy lifts everyone. But optimism does not replace data, and slogans do not override fundamentals. The evidence suggests we are not yet in an expansion worthy of victory laps—nor one that justifies celebrating “the best economy ever.”

The irony is this: acknowledging economic softness would actually strengthen the case for lower rates. A cooling economy gives the Federal Reserve—and its next Chair—the justification to ease financial conditions and help lay the groundwork for a more sustainable recovery into 2026.

You can’t claim the cake is already gone and demand a bigger slice.

Economics doesn’t work that way. And no amount of repetition—no matter how confidently delivered—will change that.